Study Warns of Potential HIV Crisis Due to Foreign Aid Reductions

 

Study Warns Millions Could Die from HIV Due to Foreign Aid Reductions

A new study indicates that proposed cuts to international foreign aid, including significant reductions in U.S. funding, may result in millions of deaths from HIV and a surge in global infection rates over the next few years.

The research, published Wednesday in The Lancet HIV, utilizes modeling to project that by 2030, between 4.4 million and 10.8 million additional people in low- and middle-income nations could contract HIV. In addition, the study estimates that HIV-related fatalities among adults and children may range from 770,000 to 2.9 million. To evaluate these impacts, the researchers focused on 26 countries that depend on foreign assistance for HIV-related programs, including Sri Lanka, South Africa, Cambodia, Albania, Colombia, and Côte d'Ivoire.

The findings underscore the critical role of international funding in reducing HIV transmission and deaths. The study highlights that five nations—the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—account for over 90% of global HIV funding, with the U.S. leading as the primary contributor. According to an analysis by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy organization, the U.S. allocated $5.71 billion in 2023, representing roughly 73% of total governmental donor contributions toward HIV initiatives.

However, as of February, the study's authors report that donor nations have revealed plans to reduce foreign aid by anywhere from 8% to 70% between 2025 and 2026. Shortly after taking office, the Trump administration halted foreign aid allocations, including funds designated for HIV/AIDS programs, while the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been leading efforts to implement extensive financial cutbacks.

"The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programs have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing," stated co-lead study author Debra ten Brink from the Burnet Institute in Australia in a news release.

The researchers warned that ongoing disruptions to funding could reverse decades of progress in fighting HIV/AIDS as a public health crisis.

"Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled. It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally," said ten Brink.

Launched in 2003 by then-President George W. Bush, PEPFAR—the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief—has directed over $100 billion toward combating HIV/AIDS worldwide. The U.S. State Department reports that since its inception, the initiative has saved approximately 26 million lives. However, its funding came to a halt earlier this year after Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered a temporary suspension of foreign aid.

"PEPFAR is the largest commitment by any nation to address a single disease in history, enabled by strong bipartisan support across ten U.S. congresses and four presidential administrations, and through the American people's generosity," the official government website HIV.gov states. "PEPFAR shows the power of what is possible through compassionate, cost-effective, accountable, and transparent American foreign assistance."

Warnings from global health officials have intensified as the consequences of these cuts become clearer. Earlier this week, the head of UNAIDS cautioned that without continued financial support, the HIV/AIDS pandemic could re-emerge, potentially leading to millions of preventable deaths.

"It is reasonable for the United States to want to reduce its funding over time, but the sudden withdrawal of lifesaving support is having a devastating impact," UNAIDS executive director Winnie Byanyima told reporters in Geneva. "We urge for a reconsideration and an urgent restoration of services — lifesaving services."