German Election: Winners, Losers, and the Road Ahead

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union.

The Christian Democrats secured victory, setting Friedrich Merz up to become Germany’s next chancellor. However, the far-right and left-wing parties emerged as the biggest gainers.

Germany’s national election saw the conservative Christian Democrats taking the lead, positioning them to spearhead the next coalition government, according to preliminary results.

With this outcome, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is expected to assume the chancellorship.

Key Takeaways from the Election

Right-leaning parties dominated the results. The mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured 28.6% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged into second place with 20.8%, marking a significant increase in support, as reported by election officials.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a substantial setback, falling nearly 10 points from their 2021 victory to 16.4%. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz admitted to a "bitter" defeat, stating, "the election result is poor and I bear responsibility."

Meanwhile, the Greens and the far-left Die Linke secured parliamentary seats, with 11.6% and 8.8% of the vote, respectively.

As a result, CDU/CSU is projected to claim 208 Bundestag seats, followed by AfD with 152, SPD with 120, the Greens with 85, and The Left with 64.

Germany, Preliminary results:

91/299 constituencies declared

CDU/CSU-EPP: 32% (+8)
AfD-ESN: 22% (+12)
SPD-S&D: 15% (-11)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 10% (-5)
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (+2)
BSW-NI: 5% (+5)
FDP-RE: 4% (-7)

+/- vs. Last election result

➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF pic.twitter.com/aZGXxar50V

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) February 23, 2025

Friedrich Merz: Germany’s Prospective Chancellor

The 69-year-old CDU leader, a multimillionaire lawyer, has had a fluctuating political career. Initially elected to the European Parliament in 1989, he became chairman of the CDU’s parliamentary group in 2000. However, Angela Merkel later sidelined him, prompting his exit from politics in 2009 to work in the private sector, including at Mayer Brown and BlackRock Germany.

Merz returned to politics, reclaiming CDU leadership in 2022 after Merkel’s retirement.

A social conservative, Merz advocates for European autonomy, stating, "That is my absolute priority, I have no illusions at all about what will come out of America." His comments reflect growing transatlantic tensions, particularly concerning U.S. policy on Ukraine and European security.

Following his party’s win, Merz reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to Ukraine, stating it "must be involved in any peace negotiations."

Significance of AfD’s Rise

The far-right AfD achieved an unprecedented 20.8% of the vote, doubling its 2021 performance. This milestone marks the most significant success for a far-right faction in Germany since World War II, granting the party 152 parliamentary seats.

AfD’s success underscores its expanding appeal, particularly among voters skeptical of immigration and the European Union, with particularly strong support in eastern Germany.

Despite having little likelihood of joining a coalition, AfD leader Alice Weidel declared, "Our hand remains outstretched to form a government," emphasizing that the party has transitioned from the fringe into the mainstream of right-wing politics.

Additionally, AfD gained political influence when CDU collaborated with them in January to pass stricter immigration laws, despite officially ruling out a coalition.

Other Major Gains and Losses

The Left significantly improved its standing, garnering 8.8% of the vote—almost double its previous result—especially excelling in Berlin, where it led with 19.9%. The party is expected to hold 64 Bundestag seats.

The newly established Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist left-wing faction that split from The Left, secured 4.97%, narrowly missing the 5% parliamentary threshold. This shortfall means larger parties will gain additional seats.

The Social Democrats’ former coalition partners—the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP)—also faced setbacks.

The Greens saw their support shrink by 3% compared to 2021, finishing with 11.6%. Party leader Robert Habeck acknowledged the disappointment, saying, "It is not a good result," and announced he would step back from party leadership.

The FDP, which triggered the snap election by withdrawing from the coalition over budget disagreements, fared even worse. With only 4.3% of the vote and no direct constituency wins, the party failed to meet the 5% threshold and is set to lose all 91 of its Bundestag seats.

As the defeat became evident, FDP leader Christian Lindner announced his departure from active politics, stating, "The German election brought defeat for the FDP, but hopefully a new start for Germany. This is what I fought for."

What Comes Next? Could AfD Enter Government?

Merz now faces the challenging task of forming a coalition. To govern, he needs at least 316 seats in the 630-member Bundestag.

Despite previous collaboration, Merz reiterated that CDU/CSU would not partner with AfD, citing "fundamental differences." This leaves the SPD as the most viable coalition partner, forming a potential two-party alliance with 328 seats.

Germany has seen CDU/CSU and SPD co-rule in "grand coalitions" four times—between 1966 and 1969 in West Germany, and three times post-reunification under Merkel.

A three-party coalition, possibly including the Greens and The Left, would demand greater compromises from Merz’s centrist CDU. The Greens advocate for tax hikes on the wealthy and renewable energy investment, while Merz favors corporate tax cuts and nuclear power. Meanwhile, The Left supports relaxed immigration policies, which contradicts Merz’s commitment to tightening immigration controls and accelerating deportations.

The coalition’s makeup will also influence foreign policy. Merz aims to strengthen Germany’s role in European affairs and foster greater continental unity.

"If it winds up being a coalition with two parties—with Merz and CDU, and the center-left—it puts him in a stronger position," said global strategy expert Marco Vicenzino. "If it has to go into a three-party coalition, it gets into a weaker position."

With Europe facing major defense challenges, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict, EU foreign policy officials have urged Germany to expedite coalition talks.

"I hope that they do it as fast as possible because we really need to move on with decisions also on the European level that require German participation," stated Kaja Kallas.

Merz expressed his intent to form a government by Easter, April 20, 2025.

AfD’s Reaction to the Results

AfD leaders have hailed their performance, asserting that the party should be included in the next government.

"We have achieved something historic today," AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla told supporters on Sunday. "We are now the political center and have left the fringes behind us."

Weidel maintained that AfD remains open to coalition talks, arguing that a CDU alliance with left-wing parties would be "electoral fraud." She warned, "If that happens, next time we’ll come first."